Wednesday, May 4, 2011

MMRCA : The Agony of Selection

On 27th April 2011, the GOI  declared the first down select of the multi billion dollar MMRCA competition. To every body's surprise including mine, two down select platforms were European platform. Not American Not Russian but European!!!!!!!! The Eurofighter Typhoon consortium (comprising of Germany,Spain and Italy) and French Dassault’s Rafale were invited to extend their commercial bids. All four other firms were informed that their platforms did not made the cut.

There were 6 fighter platform fighting for this lucrative deal also called the "Mother of all Defense Deals ". The US giants Lockheed Martin and Boeing fielded their world famous fighters F-16 IN Super Viper and FA-18 Super Hornet respectively.The Swedish fielded their small, multi role and very agile platform Gripen NG (Next Generation).The Eurofighter consortium came out with their Typhoon, currently the newest and most advanced 4.5 generation fighter. The French put forward their newest fighter in the block Rafale.Our most trusted partner Russia flew in with the MIG-35 (higher version of MIG-29 which is already in use with IAF).

The decision took everybody by surprise (except the MOD and IAF of-course!) that two European platforms were chosen. Considering the American diplomatic muscle all expected one of the American platforms to be a down select. The F/A18 SH was the favorite of many. It is a combat proven platform and also a very good aircraft. The F-16 was out of contention and was probably never considered seriously as same platform is being used by Pakistan.The IAF was actually very apprehensive about American platforms due to sanctions,tech denials and various agreements required to buy the American platform which severely restricts the operational freedom of the platforms. Headline today defense journalist Shiv Aroor has written an excellent piece about IAF reservations regarding American equipment.

As for the Russian platform, it became a no-entity once the field evaluations were over.The IAF were convinced that it is nothing but a MIG-29 platform with a new engine.Considering that IAF was looking for something that is cutting edge in terms of technology, MIG-35 never was supposed to make the cut.

The Gripen , Swedish aircraft, was touted as the independent choice.Sweden is not a political heavy weight but it offered a splendid platform and Gripen was bang for the money. But I think 3 factors ruled out Gripen:   
  1. Gripen's specification is much similar to Indian home grown fighter LCA Tejas. Selection of Gripen could be a death blow to the LCA.This is something the MOD and IAF both wouldn't want.
  2. Gripen being a single engined fighter had a inherent disadvantage.A twin engine fighter is always preferred over a single engined fighter in terms of reliability in case of emergencies.
  3. The engine for Gripen is an American engine. Thus there was always fear of  American sanctions.Moreover there was doubt over American support if Gripen wins defeating a American platform.
The two chosen platform Eurofighter Typhoon(ET) and French Rafale are the newest fighters on the block.ET offers India the most latest technology in aerospace and that also with the promise of full ToT (transfer of technology).The Rafale a/c is derived from the Mirage-2000s platform which is most trusted by the IAF. Also the French factor looms large which is very comforting for the IAF. One must remember that France refused to put sanctions on India after 1998 Pokhran test but rather stepped up defense cooperation. Also during Kargil war IAF made few modifications to its Mirages which were not allowed as per contract with France.But France very maturely did not raise any concern about that (mature because France saw long back the potential of doing business with India). It was all settled quietly within diplomatic channels without anything coming in public domain.

Moreover apart from buying 126 a/c in MMRCA competition (worth 10 billion dollars), this deal will be a commitment to partnership from the buyer and India for the next 40 years. 40 years is the expected life cycle of the MMRCA in the IAF inventory. Moreover it is also speculated that the order could go up to 200 a/c due to high rate of attrition currently in the IAF.
So the question is with whom India will be comfortable for next 40 years in diplomatic dealings? With Americans it is love and hate situation.Some times we are friend and sometimes we are not. Moreover with the US being the major supplier to Pak , the GOI may have doubts have about restrictions put forward by US in case of war with Pak.
The Russians although have been a steady partner through the decades, but some deals have been buffeting this steady boat for last few years especially the fell out due to Admiral Gorshov aircraft carrier re-negotiations. Also with India already committed to buying as many 272 SU-30MKIs and around 250 FGFA, its not prudent to put all the eggs in one basket.

ET is a consortium of few countries namely Germany, Spain and Italy. Will India be able to negotiate the sensibilities and maintain partnership with all the 3 nations at the same time given the fierce European competition culture? Or will India be very comfortable in dealing with French for next 4 decades it has done so in the past? The future only holds the answer to these questions.

My vote was and will be always with the French as they proved many times to be a trust able partner. Moreover the promise of full ToT along with the source code for Radar is a very tempting(Radar needs to be programmed for mission according to mission parameters.The mission parameters are highly secretive and and divulging to them to companies of other countries can seriously blunt India's offensive edge ). The only drawback of Rafale is its high price (around $80 million/aircraft). But again the other chosen platform ET is more than $125 million dollars/aircraft.

Whatever may be the choice The agony of selection continues and will do so for few more months.